OCTOBER 17
THE MAIN PROGRAM
Venue - Latvian National Museum of History, Castle Square 3, Central District, Riga, LV-1050
15:00 - 16:00
REGISTRATION & COFFEE
OPENING OF THE RC2024
16:00 - 16:40
OPENING
SESSION
Masters of Ceremonies - Tomass Pildegovičs & Kristīne Bērziņa
WELCOMING REMARKS BY MR. JĀNIS KARLSBERGS, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD (LATO)
WELCOMING SPEECH BY H.E. EDGARS RINKĒVIČS, PRESIDENT OF LATVIA
DISCUSSION WITH THE PRESIDENT
Kimberly Dozier, CNN Global Affairs Analyst
High Level Conversation on The Future of Euro-Atlantic Security
16:40 - 17:40
PLENARY
SESSION
H.E. Baiba Braže, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia
H.E. Gabrielius Landsbergis, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania
James O'Brien, Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, US
Dr Karin von Hippel, Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute
Moderator: Minna Ålander, Research Fellow at The Finnish Institute of International Affairs
17:40 - 18:00
COFFEE BREAK
Under Whose Umbrella? The Future Dilemmas of European Security
The stability of the European security is closely linked to the outcome of Ukraine's ongoing defence against Russia's full-scale invasion. On a global scale, Europe increasingly finds itself at the center of a larger struggle with autocracies – such as China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea – across various domains, from technological innovation and economic influence to military power. In light of these pressing security challenges, European countries must deepen cooperation in security and defence and demonstrate collective resolve to prepare for what lies ahead.
18:00 - 19:00
PLENARY
SESSION
Jonatan Vseviov, Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia
Philippe Errera, Executive Vice-President, International & Public Affairs at the Safran Group
Shashank Joshi, The Economist's Defence Editor
Velina Tchakarova, Geopolitical Strategist
Moderator: Wojciech Przybylski, Editor-in-Chief of Visegrad Insight and President of the Res Publica Foundation
19:00 - 20:00
Welcome Dinner
NIGHT OWL SESSIONS
Sessions are held under the “Chatham House Rule”
I. The Future of Russian Society: Rebirth or Ruin?
The reaction of Russian society toward the war against Ukraine has been described as emotionally numb, characterized by the absence of major protests against the regime. Is Russian society passive solely due to regime’s repressions or are there other societal factors that explain the absence of opposition and even support for the regime and war? What should the Russian political opposition do to engage with Russian society? This panel will explore current state and potential futures of Russian society, considering the country’s political, economic, and social trajectories, international isolation, and the ongoing war in Ukraine as a striking manifestation of imperial ambition.
20:00 - 21:00
NIGHT OWL
SESSION
Prof Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, Director of King's Russia Institute at the King's College London
Katerina Margolis, Russian and Italian Artist, Writer, Publicist
Ilya Kiriya, Researcher at the Université Grenoble Alpes
Kirill Martynov, Editor-in-chief Novaya Gazeta Europe
Moderator: Brian Whitmore, Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Assistant Professor of Practice, University of Texas-Arlington
II. Prospective EU Entrants: Mapping the Challenges Ahead
Enlargement, once hailed as the EU’s most successful policy, has been reinvigorated by the progress of Ukraine and Moldova in receiving EU candidate status. The road ahead, however, is far from clear. What are the internal constraints and challenges facing aspiring EU members? Can they successfully withstand coercion and foreign interference from neighboring regimes? And what should Europe do to further empower reforms in the aspiring new members?
21:00 - 22:00
NIGHT OWL
SESSION
Dr Jovana Marovic, Member at Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group
Dr Donika Emini, Executive Director of the CiviKos Platform
Dr Tobias Spori, Research Fellow at the d|part
Moderator: Méabh Mc Mahon, Irish TV Host, Senior EU Affairs Journalist for Euronews
III. Where Public and Private Sectors Meet: Reconciling Supply and Demand in the European Defense Industry
The current security environment has led European governments to the sobering realization that the European defense industry has chronically lacked investment. Provision of military aid to Ukraine coupled with the need to renew our own stocks, while simultaneously ensuring security of supply, has heightened the sense of urgency for European states, resulting in pledges to substantially raise defense spending. As Europe faces pressing needs to upscale its industrial capacity, it remains plagued by bureaucratic bottlenecks, political roadblocks, and timeline constraints – all of which slow down procurement initiatives. This conversation aims to discuss ways in which European countries could successfully respond to the demands of the current security situation in the region by increasing their industrial capacity. What steps can be taken to streamline procurement initiatives and optimize supply chain effectiveness? How can EU resources be used most effectively to attain interoperability?
21:00 - 22:00
NIGHT OWL
SESSION
Mats Warstedt, Senior Vice President Nordics, Patria
Liene Briede, Innovations prorector, Riga Technical University
Tobias Kaiser, Representative Governmental Affairs EU/NATO, Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG
Moderator: Elīna Egle, Co-Founder and Chairwoman of the Board at Federation of Security and Defence Industries of Latvia
OCTOBER 18
Is “Neutrality” Geopolitically Obsolete?
Has neutrality ever existed in international affairs? Amidst rising global tensions and a realignment of the multipolar order, the long-standing principle of neutrality is being increasingly questioned. For decades, countries like Switzerland, Sweden, and Finland maintained neutral or non-aligned positions, underpinned by substantial military capabilities. Recent geopolitical developments, spearheaded by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, have prompted several of these European nations to reconsider their stance. With Finland and Sweden now part of NATO, the concept of neutrality is undergoing a shift or perhaps, an identity crisis.
08:30 - 09:30
Morning
Session
Viola Gienger, Washington Senior Editor for Just Security
Prof Julian Lindley-French, Chairman of The Alphen Group
Rihards Kols, Member of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs
Moderator: Ian Bond, Deputy Director of the Centre for European Reform
What is the Path to a Ukrainian Victory?
10:00 - 10:20
SPECIAL
CONVERSATION
Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People, Trade Commissioner
Continued Western military support is crucial for Ukraine’s survival against Russia’s full-scale invasion, especially as attracting further military and economic assistance is becoming increasingly difficult. Zelensky’s recent meetings with U.S. leaders, including President Biden and presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, did not result in a clear American endorsement of Zelensky’s peace plan. This panel will discuss the path forward – what kind of support Ukraine needs the most to secure victory? What kind of support can Ukraine realistically expect? What can Europe do to step up efforts to secure Ukraine’s path to victory?
10:20 - 11:20
PLENARY
SESSION
David O’Sullivan, EU Sanctions Envoy
Dr Karin von Hippel, Director-General of the Royal United Services Institute
James O'Brien, Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, US
Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People, Trade Commissioner
Moderator: Lieut Gen (Ret) Ben Hodges, Former Commanding General of US Army Europe, Senior Advisor to Human Rights First
11:20 - 11:30
COFFEE BREAK
Is Russia Cracking Under Pressure?
Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine has reshaped its economic and political landscape, increasingly bringing new challenges and uncertainties. Despite increasing Western sanctions intended to indispose its elite and destabilize the regime, Russia has proven resilient, fueled by wartime demands and the strategic use of its resources. The regime has deepened ties with non-Western powers, particularly China, creating new dependencies. Internally, political dissent has been suppressed, leader enjoys high levels of support in general, and public opposition to the war remains limited, raising questions about the regime’s stability and control. What factors enable the Kremlin to sustain the current situation in the country, and what potential changes could occur, if any?
11:30 - 12:30
PLENARY
SESSION
Pavel Baev, Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo
Marie Mendras, Researcher, CNRS, Professor at Sciences Po
Arkady Mil-Man, Senior Researcher, The Institute for National Security Studies, Israel
Dirk Schuebel, Head of Russia Division, European External Action Service at The European Action Service
Moderator: Max Seddon, Chief of the Financial Times Moscow Bureau
12:30 - 13:30
LUNCH BREAK
Power of AI: Whose Power?
AI capabilities are advancing rapidly, with great consequences for global politics and economy. While some nations seek to establish regulatory frameworks for AI, others eye a chance for a competitive advantage and seek to leverage AI technology for military applications, surveillance, and digital censorship. Meanwhile, the world’s leading AI companies could be on track to becoming the gatekeepers of our digital world. Who will wield the greatest levers of power in a world transformed by AI? Will international norms stop rogue authoritarian actors from using AI for malicious purposes? Is regulation along the lines of the EU's AI Act sufficient to ensure true accountability of private companies, or are more fundamental state interventions upon their power necessary?
13:30 - 14:30
PLENARY
SESSION
Dr Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Centre for European Policy Analysis
Shashank Joshi, The Economist's Defence Editor
Dr sc ing Renāte Strazdiņa, National Technology Officer, Central Europe and Central Asia, Microsoft
Jānis Sārts, Director at the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence
Moderator: Viktors Makarovs, Special Representative of the Latvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Digital Matters
14:30 - 15:00
COFFEE BREAK
The New Global Order: Projecting 10 Years Ahead
It has become commonplace to speak of the coming of a new global order. Yet the term “order” presumes a form of stable equilibrium, which is far from clear. What will the new global balance of power look like in the wake of shifting US policy, Europe’s lack of unity in foreign-security policy, an aggressive Russia and increasingly assertive China? How will the existing international institutions, particularly the UN, adjust to these changes and shifts? Will NATO and the EU retain their influence and role globally, or will other regional alliances rise to challenge their dominance? In this evolving landscape, will the U.S. and the EU be able to forge closer ties to sustain the liberal democratic order, either globally or within regional blocs, or will rising powers reshape the international system to suit their interests?
15:00 - 16:00
PLENARY
SESSION
Dr Juan Battaleme, Security Advisor to Minister of Defence, Academic Director of the Argentinean Council of International Relations and a Professor at the Argentinean Naval War College and Air Force Staff College
Jason Isaacson, Chief Policy and Political Affairs Officer at the AJC
Hiroyuki Akita, Commentator on Foreign Affairs and International Security Issues, Nikkei
Dr Una Aleksandra Berzina-Čerenkova, Head of the Asia Research Programme at the Latvian Institute of International Affairs
Moderator: Charlotta Rodhe, Deputy Director of the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies
16:00 - 16:30
COFFEE BREAK
The Future of Multilateralism – Can the UN Charter be Defended?
As global tensions rise and international norms are increasingly challenged, the relevance of the UN Charter is up for debate. This panel will analyse whether a rules-based international order enshrined in the UN Charter is still feasible or if a more flexible, ad hoc approach is taking precedence. Experts will discuss the multifaceted challenges facing the current global order, the relevance and efficacy of the UN and explore alternative frameworks for international cooperation. The panelists will also discuss the implications of each path for global stability.
16:30 - 17:30
PLENARY
SESSION
Amb Martin Kimani, Executive Director of the Center on Internations Cooperation, NYU, New York, USA (online)
Kristīne Līce, Legislation and International Law Adviser to the President of Latvia
Amb Kelly Craft, 30th United States Ambassador to the United Nations
Moderator: Sven Jürgenson, Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York of Estonia (2015 to 2022)
17:30 - 18:00
Interview with Nino Katamadze, Georgian Singer
Moderator: Ina Strazdiņa, Journalist, Latvian National Television
18:00 - 18:20
COFFEE BREAK
“Chatham House Rule” Sessions
I. Lessons for the West in Combating Hostile Information Operations
Drawing on Ukraine's resilience against Russia's persistent disinformation campaigns and hostile information operations, this panel will explore how the West can better combat similar threats. The discussion will examine strategies that Ukraine has employed in countering Russian narratives, considering Ukraine’s successful integration of both governmental and grassroots efforts to defend its information space. Building on Ukraine’s example, the panel will explore how the Western countries can build stronger defences against hostile information operations in an evolving cognitive warfare landscape.
18:20 - 19:20
EVENING
SESSION
Maryna Vorotyntseva, Senior Expert, NATO Stratcom Centre of Excellence
Dorka Takácsy, Research Fellow at the Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy
Moderator: Brian Whitmore, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Assistant Professor of Practice, University of Texas-Arlington
II. Unmanned Technologies in Warfare. What is the Winning Formula?
Drone technologies are at the forefront of the changing nature of warfare, as seen in Ukraine. It is expected that unmanned technologies will maintain their role in future warfare and develop new niche capabilities and forms of delivery. However, with the rise of unmanned technologies, we must account for new vulnerabilities (in both deployment of drones and in countering them). What are the vulnerabilities accompanying the usage of unmanned technologies, and how should they be addressed? How will unmanned technologies develop in the future and where are the most pressing challenges shaping the future of this technology (market regulations, inter-operability, supply chains)? What role will ethical principles play in shaping the future of unmanned technologies in warfare?
18:20 - 19:20
EVENING
SESSION
Joshua Stinson, Chief Growth Officer, Edge Autonomy
Dr Thomas Withington, RUSI Associate Fellow
Daniel M. Gerstein, Senior Policy Researcher, RAND
20:00 - 22:30
RECEPTION
Concert of Latvian Etno- Pop Band “Tautumeitas” and reception in the St Peter’s Church
OCTOBER 19
NATO's 360-Degree Strategy and Strategic Partnerships
The end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union raised critical questions about NATO's future. Many wondered whether the Alliance would become obsolete in a world where its primary adversary had been defeated. However, the desire of former captive nations to join NATO, along with other geopolitical developments, reinvigorated the Alliance, leading to its major enlargement to the East. In light of the current cascading security challenges, it is pivotal to examine how closer cooperation and partnership with likeminded countries in regions like the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and North Africa fit into NATO's broader strategy. Has NATO sufficiently adapted to shifting global geopolitical realities? What global partnerships are the most important for NATO and do they provide a sufficient response to emerging challenges and technological competition? Does allies have a clear shared understanding of the Alliance’s future role and mission?
10:30 - 11:30
PLENARY
SESSION
Boris Ruge, NATO’s Acting Deputy Secretary General
Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2020-2024)
H.E. Baiba Braže, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia
Roderich Kiesewetter, MP, Committee for Foreign Affairs, Bundestag
Moderator: Camille Grand, Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations
11:30 - 12:00
COFFEE BREAK
War Calls for Urgent Measures: How will Allies Ensure Near Term Readiness?
A landmark outcome of the NATO Summit in Vilnius was the approval of the new NATO defence plans, and since then, the Alliance has worked towards their executability. Several laudable initiatives, such as the Allied Capability Delivery Commitment (ACDC) have called for more equitable burden sharing and faster filling of the most critical capability gaps amongst allies. Nevertheless, a lack of sense of urgency looms over the Alliance, as many states operate under peace-time procedures, while the security environment calls for us to perceive the threats posed to NATO with more urgency. Implementation and executability of the new defence plans will greatly depend on capability development. What capabilities are most urgently needed to ensure allied readiness in the near term? How should we respond to Russia’s ability to regenerate its military potential? What role do we foresee for new and emerging technologies in enhancing our readiness?
12:00 - 13:00
CONCLUDING
SESSION
Andris Sprūds, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Latvia
Siemtje Möller, Parliamentary State Secretary at the Federal Minister of Defence
Stephen Covington, Strategic and International Affairs Advisor to the Supreme Allied Commander
Benjamin Haddad, Minister Delegate for European Affairs of France
Moderator: Kimberly Dozier, CNN Global Affairs Analyst
Concluding Remarks
13:00 - 13:15
Andris Sprūds, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Latvia